The Top 7 NFL Player Props For The 2019 Season On PlaySugarHouse

The Top 7 NFL Player Props For The 2019 Season On PlaySugarHouse

PlaySugarHouse 2019 NFL Season Player Props

With the bulk of the NFL season just a few days away, there is now limited time to take advantage of full season props.

PlaySugarHouse has a full list of player props for the 2019 season, including for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.

Let’s take a look at a few of the intriguing props across the NFL, including an attractive touchdown prop from Big Ben. Included with my picks, I’ll explain why you may want to take a serious look into them.

Sam Darnold Over 22.5 TDs

Sam Darnold is really going to surprise people in 2019 and make a jump into the “Best young quarterbacks” discussion. Last season, Darnold threw for 17 touchdowns and over 2,800 yards.

This season, his yardage line is 3,600 and touchdown line is 22.5. Throughout the preseason, Darnold seems to be going through his reads and progressions much more smoothly and quickly than a year ago. Traditionally, the best long-term quarterbacks make a good jump in year two and I think Darnold is no different.

As he becomes more confident and gets a feel for the offense in 2019, his touchdowns will jump and his efficiency numbers should also spike as well. I’m anticipating a jump to 24 or 25 touchdowns this season. With the recent tanking efforts in Miami, Darnold will feast in both those games in 2019.

Leonard Fournette Over 950.5 Rushing Yards

Most prop bets have to be qualified by the participation of eight games from the player. In Fournette’s case, if you think he can play even 12 games, he should be able to eclipse the 951 yards needed for this prop.

Fournette is entering his third season and will have a big upgrade at quarterback, which should ease the frequency he’ll see a stacked box in 2019. In his rookie season, he played 13 games and went for 1040 yards.

If you’re feeling lucky about his health situation, it’s definitely worth a roll of the dice. I expect Fournette, with this increased offensive support in 2019, will average over 4.0 yards per carry. The big question is, will he get to 250 carries?

Alvin Kamara Under 10.5 Touchdowns

Last season, Kamara’s rushing touchdowns jumped to 14, from 8 in 2017. Part of that was the early season usage spike he got from Mark Ingram being suspended for PEDs.

In the four games Ingram was gone, Kamara scored five rushing touchdowns and had just nine over the last 10 games of the season. This season, the addition of another complimentary back, Latavius Murray — who profiles as a short-yardage back at 6’3, 230 lbs — should lessen the opportunity for Kamara around the goal line.

Though Kamara should average around 185 carries this season, the upgrade of his backfield platoon-mate will, in theory, result in a dip in rushing touchdowns. Murray is a bruising back, with plenty of juice left to squeeze, unlike Ingram, who was running purely on artificial juice. I think Murray will take more of the touchdown pie than people might expect in New Orleans.

Le’Veon Bell Under 1650.5 Total Yards

Le’veon Bell is back, in green this time and with a lot more green in his bank account. Though his holdout ultimately may have cost him money in both the short term and long term, Bell did get a long term deal done with the Jets. That being said, the Jets offensive line is nowhere near as good as the Steelers and even with that line, Bell’s 2017 YPC dropped from 4.9 to just 4.0.

His carries went from 261 to 321, so a dip in YPC is expected at such heavy volume, but the emergence of James Conner in 2018 and his superior YPC and YPR (Yards Per Reception) were all the Steelers needed to let Bell walk in 2019. The issue for Bell will be deeper than just his inferior offensive line and low YPC. It’s going to be a usage issue. Bell has expressed his desire to touch the ball at a record rate, but the Jets are not as efficient on offense as the Steelers were, thus he will have much less opportunity than we expect. From there, it’s a simple numbers game.

One more thing to consider is Bell’s patient running style. It’s going to take time for this line to adjust to how Bell runs. I have my doubts and you should be skeptical too. Even if Bell gets 240 carries and 75% of the receptions he had in his final season in Pittsburgh, he would still fall short of his last YPC and YPR rates.

Marlon Mack Over 1025.5 Rushing Yards

Mack averaged 4.7 yards-per-carry behind one of the top offensive lines in football in 2018. Aside from Andrew Luck retiring, nothing else has changed heading into 2019. Mack will be leaned on heavily to give Brissett some breathing room to get settled into the offense in 2019 and the offensive line, which was a weakness in 2017, is ow a strength for the Colts.

Even if Mack’s YPC drops in 2019, his attempts should be way up from last year when he had less than 200 carries but still accounted for 908 rushing yards. Expect Mack’s carries to approach 240 and his yardage to eclipse 1,100. This seems like a reasonable expectation, given the scenarios in play.

Ben Roethlisberger Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns

Roethlisberger has a fairly high line for passing yardage at 4,300 yards, so this is a bit of an odd line. By that, I mean Ben has thrown for at least 28 touchdowns in five of his past six seasons, and during that time, he’s only eclipsed 4,300 yards twice.

So, if Vegas is so high on Ben for yardage, why are they so low on his touchdown line? This is the product of a void — Antonio Brown — in the offense, combined with Pittsburgh’s touchdown efficiency being artificially lowered, due to the lesser known quantities inhabiting the offense now. I think Ben should hit around 30-33 touchdowns this season, given his high passing yardage line.

Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who will watch any sport and gamble with anyone willing. He currently resides in Texas and has to deal with Cowboys fans all the time.