The 10 Best Prop Bets For NFL Week 7

The 10 Best Prop Bets For NFL Week 7

Welcome back to our weekly player prop picks, with lines provided by the DraftKings PA Online Sportsbook. Last week, we went 2-4 on the player prop lines and sure things. The over for Golladay and the touchdown for Claypool were the only winners. Aside from that, Sean McVay obviously lied when he said he expected to get Akers an increase in work from Week 6.

Devonta Freeman actually got negative yards receiving, despite having a solid day otherwise. Mark Andrews was barely involved, and Pat Mahomes barely missed the mark on three touchdowns. It was disappointing overall, but not a disaster.

Results so far this season

For the season, we are 21-15 on prop lines and sure things. We’ve still only hit longshot bets in Week One and Two, but we are due for one soon.

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 21-15

2020 Unit standing (Longshots included): -4

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 7.

All odds according to DraftKings (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Prop line bets

Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here are the best on the board for Week 7.

Teddy Bridgewater under 57.5 rushing yards -112

When I used to my picks for daily fantasy sports, I’d look up player props to get the best projections and weigh them with their price. Every once and awhile, I’d come across something funny and it turned out to be extremely right or very wrong. This Teddy Bridgewater rushing line is one of those.

Teddy has had one game all season with more than 32 yards rushing, and that came last week against a stout Bears defense and pass rush (he had 48 rushing yards). I don’t see the Saints in a similar light. This line is oddly high, and I think this one is a no-brainer.

Robert Tonyan to score a touchdown +130

This one may seem unlikely, given the name, but consider what Anthony Firkser did to the Texans a week ago. Firkser was the leading receiver for the Titans and is the second tight end on the depth chart. Robert Tonyan is more than just a middling tight end on a good team. He’s a talented guy who has the trust of Aaron Rodgers.

With the attention being focused on Davante Adams, expect Tonyan to find himself in some pretty good scoring situations in the red zone. This one should be a shootout. With Aaron Jones likely out, Tonyan may be the second target through the air in the red zone. Of course, make sure Tonyan is good to go for this game before you prop bet him. According to Friday’s injury report, he is leaning towards being a game-time decision.

Mike Williams over 42.5 receiving yards -143

Mike Williams is back. It’s nice to see him healthy and dominating once again. This prop is good because of timing. In a week or so, Williams is almost certainly going to be back over 55 yards for most props. Justin Herbert has thrown for at least 290 yards in three of his four starts. With a healthy Williams out there to be his go-to jump ball guy, Williams offers a good floor this week.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Player to have more receiving yards: Deshaun Watson -125 vs Aaron Rodgers 

Expanding out the selections this week, I went to the “Matchups” section of the player props. I love this prop for a few reasons. For one, Davante Adams has a difficult corner matchup. It’s not a certainty Adams will struggle, as AJ Brown was limited vs Roby a week ago but still caught two touchdowns.

Roby still held Brown to just 53 receiving yards. Aside from Adams, Rodgers’ next favorite target is likely Aaron Jones or Robert Tonyan. Jones may not suit up (calf strain). The Packers also are favored and have an incredible matchup against a poor run defense who was just shredded by Derrick Henry. Both Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are fast, powerful runners and you can expect to see the Packers take advantage of this mismatch as much as possible, especially with a lack of weapons outside.

There is a much better chance the Texans trail for a good portion of this game. If they are leading, I expect it will be due to Deshaun Watson passing and not David Johnson on the ground. I think Watson is about 75% to win this, all things considered.

Patrick Mahomes over 22.5 rushing yards -106

Aside from Week 1, where Mahomes didn’t have to scramble once, he’s had at least 21 rushing yards in every game. If the Broncos expect to slow Mahomes, there’s two ways to do it. One way is to blitz him, but Mahomes is the top quarterback against the blitz. The other way is by dropping numbers in coverage.

The problem with that route is that it results in Mahomes getting flushed from the pocket and defenders being too far from him to account for him on the ground. This has happened quite frequently as of late. It also appears to be a much more effective strategy in slowing the Chiefs. If that strategy results in obvious rushing overs for Mahomes, I’m ready to cash in.

Tim Patrick over 47.5 receiving yards -112

Patrick has gone over 100 yards in consecutive games now. He’s a talented, yet overlooked receiver. With the focus of the Kansas City secondary on Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant, Patrick is going to see some soft coverage in a game script likely to be negative for most of the game.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit two this year so far.

Alvin Kamara to score first touchdown +450

Alvin Kamara is one of the only options for Drew Brees and this offense in Week 7. Without Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas, the options are very limited. That’s great news for us, as the odds don’t appear to reflect that. Kamara should be the overwhelming favorite to score first. At +450, it seems like the smart play.

Tim Patrick to score a touchdown +350

Earlier, we highlighted the fact Tim Patrick is coming off consecutive 100-yard receiving performances. This week, he will again be no better than the third option for the defense. Patrick should get plenty of balls thrown his way this game, so roll him out there at +350 to score.  If you’re the third option in an offense, you shouldn’t have odds this low to score, unless you’re playing for the Jets.

Jerick McKinnon to score first touchdown +800

McKinnon is the new lead man, again. Courtesy of an injury to Raheem Mostert, McKinnon will have lead back duties against the Patriots. McKinnon is a threat on the ground and through the air, so his red zone versatility should come in handy this week.

Howitzer shot of the week

Taysom Hill to score first touchdown +2200

You know, there aren’t a lot of receiving options available in New Orleans right now. Hill scored last time out and the Panthers are very familiar with the Saints’ tendencies around the goal line. Where they aren’t familiar is the new Taysom Hill plays we see every week.

Just when we think we’ve seen a play we recognize with Hill, there’s a new wrinkle. Hey, considering the limited weapons the Saints will be working with, Hill may be a good value play here.

Good luck this week!