Getting Back On The Prop Horse For Conference Championship Weekend

Getting Back On The Prop Horse For Conference Championship Weekend

Championship Round Prop Picks

Welcome back to player prop picks with the lines from the DraftKings Online Sportsbook. Last week, we were taken to the woodshed. For the year, we are still 55.9% but this was brutal.

I felt like the process was right on most of them, but it just didn’t work out. Andrews didn’t sniff his line, Akers got one target out of the backfield, and Josh Allen did virtually nothing on the ground, despite having so many easy opportunities to get chunk yardage.

Jarvis Landry may have gotten there, but one huge reception was called back for a hold. Mahomes was the big back-breaker, as he had 233 yards passing at the half (only 87 yards shy of the yardage line). Early in the second half, Mahomes went down and so did our chances to salvage the day on our last two props.

Results so far

For the Conference Week, we are focusing on a balanced split of overs and unders. We feel there will be much more conservative play calls earlier, slightly lower scoring, but passing in the Packers game will consist of many short routes.

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 71-56 (55.9%)

2020 Unit standing Prop lines only: +15 (Longshots included: -20.5)

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Conference Weekend.

All odds according to DraftKings Online Sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Prop line bets

Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Conference Weekend.

Tom Brady under 289.5 passing yards -112

This game isn’t going to begin with both teams being shot out of a cannon. Both teams recognized the running game for these two teams will be crucial.

In their first meeting, the Packers got too cute and bailed early on the run game. The Bucs ran the ball nearly 40 times and had great success. This time around, in bad weather, I don’t expect both teams are going to come out guns blazing.

The game projects to be close without, so without a potential huge negative game script, I don’t expect Brady will be airing it out until very late in the game and even then, the conditions are not favorable.

Aaron Rodgers under 279.5 passing yards +100

We just went over the weather conditions and the expected conservative opening. Rodgers had his worst game of the season against the Bucs in Week 6. The Packers had a 10-point lead before Rodgers tossed a pick-six. He then followed it up the next drive with another pick. The game spiraled out of control after that.

I think, this time around, the Packers will play things a little safer. Every time Rodgers dropped back deep in their first game, he was hit or sacked. The Packers are going to play it close to the ground. Even though I like Davante Adams in this game, we are going against the odds here and taking the under.

Josh Allen under 305.5 passing yards -112

Josh Allen had more issues in the bad weather last week. Sure, the Bills passed the ball the entire game, but he didn’t even come close to his line. The weather forecast for Sunday around 5pm is 34 degrees, with an 85% chance of rain and winds from 5-15 mph. Allen has not broken 300 yards in any game with similar conditions this season.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Ronald Jones over 35.5 rushing yards -124

Jones is back from his thigh and finger issue. He got some pretty good runs last week, but took a backseat to Fournette. I think Jones gets the majority of snaps this time around, as he gouged the Packers for over 100 in the first meeting. With the weather looking rough, I expect Jones will get a decent amount of work in the game.

Rob Gronkowski over 2.5 receptions -124

Gronk had eight targets the first time around. The Bucs are going to have a hobbled Antonio Brown in the game (if he actually plays), so I do expect they’ll run 12 personnel more frequently in this one.

When you consider how well the Bucs did on the ground against the Packers in Week 6, it’s reasonable to expect another heavy ground attack, especially in a bad weather game. With Gronk’s snap count likely elevated in this game, it’s reasonable to expect a decent output (this is a cheat code formula for determining tight end usage).

Davante Adams over 7.5 receptions -118

Aaron Rodgers loves Adams. He loves Adams more than any quarterback loves a receiver this season, aside from maybe Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Last week, facing the best corner in football, Adams still managed nine receptions on ten targets.

Even when Adams was not 100% the first time these two teams played, he still had six receptions in that game, which was one of the worst of the season for Adams. With Adams now 100% and facing an easy matchup, I think he’s going to get a load of short targets in this potential harsh weather game.

Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 passing touchdowns -230

I don’t expect Rodgers to light the world on fire in this game, but the Buccaneers do have a solid run defense. Rodgers loves to throw it around the goal line, and he has plenty of mismatches in this one.

With a total points line of 51.5, I expect we will see at least two touchdowns from Rodgers here. Rodgers has had two passing touchdowns in eight straight playoff games. This is as close to a lock as they come.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Darrel Williams to score first touchdown +1300

The Bills really let the Chiefs run all game at them the last time these two played. The Bills run defense is also pretty bad. With the weather expected to be a factor here, Williams is the most trusted guy near the goal line.

Davante Adams to score first touchdown +525

Adams is the go-to, and that means when the stakes are high, Rodgers will go his way before anyone else near the end zone. Trust the relationship.

Howitzer shot of the week

Tom Brady to score first touchdown +4000

We’ve seen it multiple times with Brady, even recently. If the Buccaneers end up close to the end zone and we get a PI call in the end zone, Brady is a serious threat for a sneak. At such astronomical odds, why not?

Good luck this week!