Prop Mismatches: 59% Hits On The Year

Prop Mismatches: 59% Hits On The Year

NFL Divisional Round Game Props

Welcome back to player prop picks, with betting lines from the  DraftKings Online Sportsbook. Last week, we went 5-2 on the week. We missed on JK Dobbins and Philip Rivers, but the rest were sound.

Jonathan Taylor cleared his over in the third quarter, Hollywood Brown cleared his by over 60 yards, Juju Smith-Schuster cleared his line by over seven receptions, and Mark Andrews cleared his line in the third quarter. Finally, Derrick Henry’s under was our last big winner, as he rushed for 80 yards fewer than his line.

Results so far

For the Divisional week, it’s all about mismatches.

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 71-49 (59.16%)

2020 Unit standing Prop lines only: +22 (Longshots included: -10.5)

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Divisional Weekend.

All odds according to DraftKings (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Prop line bets

Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Divisonal Round Weekend.

Patrick Mahomes over 320.5 passing yards -118

There’s a few things I really like for Mahomes here. For one, I love how they essentially have no run game. The second thing I like is the history of teams on a bye resting players in Week 17.

Over the last five games, the teams on bye scored a grand total of just six points in the first quarter. Given what the Chiefs did last season, falling behind 24-0 and 17-7 in their AFC games, I feel good about the Browns getting the jump in this game. The Browns are fresh off a big win against Pittsburgh and now they’re playing a weaker defense in the Chiefs.

With both a negative game script early, paired with the lack of a run game, I expect Mahomes will be chucking it for most of the game. I expect Mahomes should clear this number, especially with a high point total, against a suspect secondary.

Jarvis Landry over 58.5 receiving yards -112

Jarvis Landry is still highly underrated. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Landry is the tenth-highest graded receiver in the NFL We expect this game to be high-scoring, as do the books (57 point total line). Landry will be matched up against Charvarious Ward, the 43rd ranked corner by PFF.

Ward isn’t good enough yet to worry here, and the Browns are ten-point underdogs. With the negative game script in play, the Browns are going to have to go to play action when this game is close, so I like Landry to get quite a few targets this week.

Alvin Kamara over 34.5 receiving yards -112

The first time these two played, Kamara led the team in receptions (5) and targets (8), in a game in which Brees only threw for 160 yards (Kamara had 51 yards). In the second game, the game script didn’t help the situation, as the Saints were destroying the Buccaneers early.

Kamara had five receptions for just nine yards, but he did manage to lead the team in targets (6). Many, myself included, feel this game should be closer to their first matchup of the season. I like Kamara to have one or two big ones that gets him over this line.

Sure things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 touchdowns -125

The total points line is 57 points here. The Chiefs are favored by ten points, and how often do we expect them to test this defensive front on the ground with a banged-up backfield? I don’t trust anyone on offense other than Mahomes and Kelce.

If the Chiefs have success in this game as the point total suggests, Their scores will come via Mahomes. The Chiefs have an implied point total of 34 points. That’s four touchdowns and three field goals. I find it unrealistic to expect less than three touchdowns from Mahomes here.

Cam Akers over 14.5 receiving yards -143

Cam’s rushing line this week seems low against such a bad run defense (70.5 yards), but beware. It smells like a bit of a trap. Since Goff is still hurt and limited, we should expect a lot of pop passes and screens. I like Akers as the primary beneficiary since his usage has gone up late in the season.

Mark Andrews over 54.5 receiving yards -134

We keep riding the Mark Andrews train and it just keeps paying off for us. This week, Hollywood Brown has a very challenging matchup outside with White, so that leaves Andrews as the clear top target favorite this week.

With the Ravens as slight dogs and expected to run the ball heavily, the play-action should open up a lot for Mark Andrews this week.

Josh Allen over 38.5 rushing yards -134

Josh Allen is the best ground threat for the Bills in this game. Zack Moss will be out, and Singletary doesn’t scare any defense on the ground. Josh Allen is the X-factor for the Bills in this game. With cold weather and a heavy pass rush inbound, expect Allen to take matters into his own hands on the ground.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Mark Andrews to score two touchdowns +1300

We haven’t been hitting these lately, so let’s just go for it here. Andrews, as we mentioned, will be the apple of Lamar Jackson’s eye in play action. Around the goal line, the Bills will be stacking guys.

Robert Tonyan to score first touchdown +1000

We know the Packers receivers have extremely challenging matchups. We also know the Rams have a solid run defense. All arrows are pointing to Tonyan here.

Howitzer shot of the week

Kareem Hunt to score first touchdown +1400

Hunt has his own “revenge” narrative going for some reason. More importantly, Hunt has simply been more of a pain for opposing defenses near the goal line lately. He can score on the ground or through the air, but I think the Browns will score first while the Chiefs shake off the rust.

Good luck this week!