Here’s Our Top NFL Week 10 Prop Bets For This Sunday

Here’s Our Top NFL Week 10 Prop Bets For This Sunday

NFL Week 10 Prop Picks

Welcome back to our weekly player prop picks with betting lines from the DraftKings PA Online Sportsbook.

Last week, we went 5-2 on the player prop lines and sure things. However, I put out seven this week instead of the usual six, because I felt really good about so many this week.

Diggs, Brown, Cooks, and Williams all hit their overs, while David Johnson hit the under. Our only two losses were Lockett and Waller, while we did hit one longshot (Curtis Samuel to score a touchdown).

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Results through Week 9

The week was a solid one, as the season count now for props and sure things is 33-25. We have four longshot hits on the season, and the overall net for the season, longshots included, is -6.

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 33-25

2020 Unit standing (longshots included): -5

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 10.

All odds according to the DraftKings Online Sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

Prop line bets – coin flips

Our coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Week 10.

Kyler Murray over 51.5 Rushing yards -134

Kyler Murray has only gone under 67 yards rushing twice this season. Once was against the Jets and the other was against the Lions. The Lions have the 26th lowest blitz rate, blitzing just 22.5% of the time. The Jets blitz at the 8th highest rate, but the game script was crucial in that game.

The game was over early, the Cardinals had 30 rushes, and Murray wasn’t under duress much. For this Buffalo game, the Bills have the 7th highest blitz rate in the NFL. Murray using his feet to make plays seems like a highly likely outcome.

Mike Davis under 51.5 rushing yards -112

The first time these two teams played, Christian McCaffrey rushed for just 59 yards on 18 attempts. Davis has only had 18 attempts once this season and he went for 52 yards. When McCaffrey has been out, the Panthers pass more frequently.

In this matchup, the Panthers are six-point underdogs against a team angry about being blown out last week. The Bucs also managed to fairly easily control the game in a positive game script the first time these two met, so Davis’ rushing workload should be tempered.

James Robinson over 67.5 rushing yards -118

I believe we are 3-0 with James Robinson props this season (knock on wood). Robinson is as predictable as it gets in the bizarre 2020 running back landscape. The only thing keeping this prop from hitting is the game script.

If the Jags get down by a lot early, Robinson will likely be schemed out of this game at some point in the second half. The reality is, he’s probably not rushing for many yards in the second half. That being said, Robinson’s expected carries line is 14.5 carries and his yardage is a low 67.5. Over his last two games, Robinson has set and broken his career highs in carries (22, 25).

The question you have to ask yourself is, are the Jaguars going to be close enough in this game long enough for Robinson to break 68 yards rushing against the second-worst run defense in football? If you think the Jags could be frisky, this is the bet for you.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Tyler Lockett over 65.5 receiving yards -112

We always wonder when it’s going to be a Tyler Lockett week or a DK Metcalf week and the answer is, every week is a DK Metcalf week. That being said, Lockett has had a few monster games this season. The formula is simple. It happens when DK has a very stout matchup and when Lockett has a soft matchup.

This week, Metcalf will face Jalen Ramsey, while Locket will be working mainly out of the slot against Troy Hill (56.5 PFF grade: 66th among corners). It may be surface-level analysis, but it doesn’t mean it isn’t a good assumption.

Josh Reynolds over 45.5 receiving yards -112

This one is simple but will depend a lot on target share. The question I have is, will Goff spread it around between Kupp, Woods, and Reynolds? The Seahawks are top four against the run (though it’s definitely skewed by how bad their pass defense is).

With Kupp working out of the slot in 11 personnel, Reynolds has the outside and the outside, on either side, is a good place to be when facing the Seahawks.

Since Week 3, Reynolds has anywhere from 44 to 60 yards receiving in five of six games. He’s been remarkably mediocre in those games, but this pass defense will be the worst they’ve seen all season. Reynolds has massive sleeper potential in this game.

Darrell Henderson over 13.5 receiving yards -112

Henderson is the ideal receiving back profile. He’s a decent receiver who served well in a zone-run scheme at the University of Memphis. In this offense, Henderson is expected to again serve as the lead back.

The key here in the game is the expected pressure Goff is going to get from the Seattle defense. With Jamaal Adams blitzing one of the worst quarterbacks under pressure, Henderson is going to be the safety valve. I don’t expect him to chip much, as Adams is difficult, even for great blocking backs, to chip effectively.

Henderson has gone for at least eleven yards receiving in three of his past four games, but the expected pressure leads us to this potentially savvy conclusion.

Carson Wentz over 1.5 passing touchdowns -112

Over the past four weeks, Carson Wentz has thrown at least two touchdowns in each game. It’s worth noting, two of those opponents were elite defenses (Pittsburgh, Baltimore) while another was their opponent this week.

This one is cut and dry. The weather looks favorable and Wentz will be looking to bounce back, following an off day against the lowly Cowboys. He’s also going to have a plethora of weapons at his disposal who were out due to injury the last time these two played.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit four this year so far.

Jace Sternberger to score a touchdown +600

Tight ends have accounted for nine touchdowns this season in Green Bay. With Robert Tonyan possibly out, Sternberger has decent odds as his lead replacement to find the end zone in a tight end touchdown friendly offense.

Curtis Samuel to score a touchdown +375

This is becoming an intentional recurring joke, but he keeps cashing. Hey, Curtis Samuel has scored touchdowns in three straight weeks. He gets both receptions and carries out of the backfield, so go ahead and give him a shot again.

Howitzer shot of the week

Marcedes Lewis to score first touchdown +3500

Lewis found the end zone last week and in Week 3. With Robert Tonyan injured and possibly not playing, Lewis is the sneaky play to find the end zone for an offense that loves to throw the ball to tight ends around the goal line.

Good luck this week!