The Top NFL Week 11 Expert Prop Bet Picks

The Top NFL Week 11 Expert Prop Bet Picks

NFL Week 11 Prop Picks

Welcome back to our weekly player prop picks with lines from the DraftKings PA online sportsbook. Last week, we went 5-2 on the player prop lines and sure things for the second week in a row. I’m likely moving to the seven-prop format going forward, as it’s allowing us to play for a positive net each week.

The week was a solid one, as the season count now for props and sure things is 38-27. We have four longshot hits on the season, and the overall net for the season, longshots included, is -5.

In Week 11, I’m focusing on the Jets/Chargers and Washington/Cincinnati for a number of props. With the Jets having a good rush defense/bad pass defense and the Jets likely being in a negative game script, I like the passing opportunities and hate the rushing outlook.

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Results through Week 10

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 38-27

2020 Unit standing (Longshots included): -5

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 11.

All odds according to the DraftKings Online Sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

Prop line bets

Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Week 11.

La’Mical Perine under 51.5 rushing yards -125

Perine has played in eight games this season and has failed to go beyond 40 yards on the ground in all of them. I don’t know if this has anything to do with what Adam Gase said about Perine getting more work going forward, but I don’t trust anything that comes out of that guy’s mouth.

Gase also said Frank Gore is the best player on his team recently. If Adam Gase said he was going vegan for a year, I would bet my wife’s IRA that Gase would die in a year from a heart attack.

Samaje Perine over 20.5 rushing yards -112

The elder Perine, Samaje, has been gritting it out in the NFL for a few years now, battling injuries and crowded backfield situations. Last week, Perine looked the part as a three-down back, rushing for 48 yards on seven carries. The week prior, he went for 32 yards on the ground with ten carries.

Though I don’t anticipate he’s going to get more than a dozen carries, the matchup is more favorable than it was a week ago against the Steelers. I can see Perine getting more carries than Bernard, whose line is in the 40s this week. I don’t expect a big game, but I really like this one.

Mark Andrews over 45.5 receiving yards -112

Andrews has been on our weekly prop picks a few times now. On the year, we have a 2-1 record on his props. This week, Andrews is coming off a seven for 61-yard performance and facing a Titans secondary that is easily exploitable. Though he’s only exceeded the yardage total four times this season, the Titan’s offense should keep the Ravens incentivized to throw as this game progresses.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Michael Thomas under 68.5 receiving yards -150

This one is a product of process-based thought. The Saints are starting Taysom Hill at quarterback in a real-life “Island of Dr. Moreau” move. Taysom Hill is many things. Like an old-timey player of the early days of football, Taysom Hill can run, pass, catch, and probably kick.

Unfortunately for Hill, he doesn’t pass the ball well. By “doesn’t pass the ball well”, I of course mean he looks worse throwing the ball than a punter or receiver throwing it. He looks more like your drunk uncle throwing the ball with his off-hand at thanksgiving. What this means for Michael Thomas’ production is simple. Those 20-yard out routes will be virtually non-existent.

Thomas has played in three games this season and failed to eclipse 51 yards in a game. I do expect some roll-outs and option passes to go his way, but conventionally, this guy is in trouble this week in the yardage department.

Logan Thomas over 35.5 receiving yards -112

Alex Smith’s passing yards are expected to be over 269 yards this week. We don’t expect it’s all going to go to Terry McLaurin. Smith loves the short routes to running backs, but he also loves throwing to the tight end position.

In three of his last four games, Logan Thomas has surpassed his prop line yardage totals. He’s had at least 42 yards in three of the last four and has a very favorable matchup this week against a Bengals team.

Nyheim Hines over 27.5 receiving yards -112

Nyheim Hines has gone over his receiving yardage in two of his past three games. The problem all season has been his inconsistency in usage. The good news is, Hines looked like the outright best back in the offense last week.

Also, the Packers are 31st at defending running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. All signs point to Hines hitting the over here.

Mike Williams over 52.5 receiving touchdowns -112

With Mike Williams, it’s a boom or bust situation. We all know the Charger’s tendency to run the ball more than they should in the second half of games, but Anthony Lynn’s job is on the line. With his back against the wall, playing to keep his job, I expect Lynn to plan for Herbert to air it out against the Jets frequently.

The Jet’s secondary is awful and Williams has a very favorable outside matchup. Williams has gone over the receiving yards line in three of the past five games. He’s a true coin flip guy, but in a game projected to be a pass-heavy contest, Williams stands a good chance to go over his modest line.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit four this year so far.

Eric Ebron to score first touchdown +1200

I love picking longshots in games where there’s a clear favorite. I also like picking long odds on offenses that spread the ball around. If the Steelers get inside the Red Zone, all eyes will be on the big three Steelers receivers, leaving Ebron free to work.

Taysom Hill to score first touchdown +1000

Well, Hill has the green light this week, so why not throw a little down on the Swiss Army Knife of this offense to score the first touchdown?

Howitzer shot of the week

Samaje Perine to score first touchdown +1800

Look, the line here is pretty even with these teams. The Bengals love to throw the ball, but hear me out. I’m calling this shot now. I think the Bengals will work the ball down, someone will draw a PI call in the end zone and the Bengals will get a first and goal from the one. That’s when we get Samaje Perine setup for a one-yard plunge to open the game.

Good luck this week!