It’s Wayne Gallman Week — And 8 Other NFL Week 12 Props

It’s Wayne Gallman Week — And 8 Other NFL Week 12 Props

Week 12 NFL Prop Picks

Welcome back to our breakdown of the best NFL prop bets for the week. Last week, we went 4-3 on the player prop lines and sure things, giving us three straight net positive weeks.

La’Mical Perine, Mike Williams, Mark Andrews, and Nyheim Hines were all hits, while Michael Thomas, Logan Thomas, and Samaje Perine didn’t come through. The week was a decent one, as the season tally for props and sure things is 42-30. We have four longshot hits on the season, and the overall net for the season, longshots included, is -7.

In Week 12, I’m focusing on the dome games primarily, and a lot of Wayne Gallman.

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Results through Week 11

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 42-30

2020 Unit standing (Longshots included): -7

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 12.

All odds come to us from the DraftKings PA Online Sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

Prop line bets

Our coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Week 12.

Damiere Byrd under 46.5 receiving yards -112

Byrd has been a boom or bust kind of guy all season long. Last week was a boom week for him, but we have to consider his matchup this week with Patrick Peterson the likely candidate to matchup on his side. Peterson hasn’t been great this season, but think about who the Patriots quarterback is.

Cam Newton has faced Peterson for years. He knows Peterson is dangerous and respects him. I think Newton avoids Peterson and subsequently, Damiere Byrd. Also, this game should be a run-heavy approach from the Patriots.

Wayne Gallman over 56.5 rushing yards -112

The Giants are back following their bye and they have a real gift this week with the Cincinnati Bengals. With Daniel Jones’ line a meager 235 passing yards and what is thought to be a positive game script, the Giants will be taking a run-heavy approach in all likelihood.

Gallman is the lead back now, and one who has produced fairly well for them over the last five games.

Teddy Bridgewater over 255.5 passing yards -112

The Panthers are likely going to be without Christian McCaffrey this week and are dogs on the road. The perceived game script for the Panthers is negative, so we should expect a lot of passing. With a clear and obvious formula for winning this one on the road,

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Nelson Agholor over 46.5 receiving yards -134

Agholor has been more hindered this season by bad weather than anything else. This week, he’s got a great matchup against a Falcons secondary who’s been getting burned by the entire league, all season. Derek Carr’s line this week is 272 yards, so expect Agholor to get plenty this week.

Damien Harris over 48.5 rushing yards -121

Harris is the workhorse back in a favorable matchup, so needing him to get 49 yards seems pretty straightforward.

Myles Gaskin to score a touchdown -121

Monitor this one as the game draws closer. Gaskin is expected to return, but it’s not set in stone. The matchup here against a bad Jets defense is good and the game script is also a favorable one for him here. If he’s looking iffy close to kickoff, feel free to completely back off this one, as I’ve added a fifth option this week in the “sure things” specifically for this.

Brian Hill to score a touchdown -115

Todd Gurley has been a touchdown machine and not much else. It’s clear the Falcons like to run the ball when they get close to the goal line, so don’t expect their schemes to change much simply because Gurley isn’t out there. Hill stands a very good chance to find the end zone in this one.

Wayne Gallman to score a touchdown +105

Gallman has a rushing touchdown in each of his past four games. As if I need to say any more, the Giants are playing the Bengals and should be in a positive game script throughout the game.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit four this year so far.

Wayne Gallman to score the first touchdown +650

I have Gallman in here twice already, so let’s go for the trifecta. This one just makes the most sense in this game, all things considered.

Dalvin Cook to score first touchdown +325

This may be the safest longshot pick of all time. I want to get a fifth longshot winner under my belt this week, so let’s just roll with Dalvin and hope he comes through.

Howitzer shot of the week

Anthony Firkser to score last touchdown +3000

Last season, I hit a +4200 pick on Firkser to score the final touchdown in the AFC Championship game. Will lightning strike twice? It might since Tannehill loves to target tight ends in the red zone and Firkser has been getting so much more work lately.

Good luck this week!