Jonathan Taylor Breakout Incoming: We Mean It This Time

Jonathan Taylor Breakout Incoming: We Mean It This Time

Jonathan Taylor Week 13

Welcome back to player prop picks from betting lines from the DraftKings PA Online Sportsbook. Last week, we went 5-2 on props and hit one longshot (Wayne Gallman to score first touchdown +650). We put out eight prop line bets this week, in case Myles Gaskin wasn’t able to go.

It turned out well, as Gaskin was ruled out late Saturday. We highlighted Wayne Gallman this week in rushing yards, to score a touchdown, and to score the first touchdown. He accomplished all three and if you hit on all three, you got a nice 8.5 units from it.

We hit on Damiere Byrd under, Wayne Gallman over, Teddy Bridgewater over, Nelson Agholor over, and Wayne Gallman to score a touchdown. We missed on Harris by just one yard, and Hill by virtue of being a vulture in a blowout.

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Results through Week 12

In Week 13, I’m focusing on a pair of Denver Broncos and the Houston vs Indianapolis game.

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 47-32

2020 Unit standing (Longshots included): +.5

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 13.

All odds according to DraftKings Online Sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors)

Prop line bets

Our Coin Flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Week 13.

Noah Fant over 38.5 receiving yards -112

Fant has been rather quiet lately. Throw last week out the window because a receiver was playing quarterback, and Fant is poised for a strong game.

In three of the previous four games, Fant has had at least 45 yards receiving. In what will surely be a negative game script, Fant should have a solid game, especially with Jerry Jeudy not 100% on the outside.

Drew Lock over 237.5 passing yards -112

Drew Lock is not a volume passer. That’s the plan, anyway. As we have witnessed in 2020 though, the best-laid plans often go awry. Denver’s run game has disappeared as of late, and the team has been in more negative game scripts in 2020 than positives.

Now, they’re facing the best team in football. The positive news is, Lock has thrown for at least 248 yards in each of his last five games. With a line of 237.5, this seems like a fairly obvious bet.

Deshaun Watson over 274.5 passing yards -112

This is 100% a game script play. The Texans are underdogs and facing a stout rush defense. The belief here is that even with David Johnson back, the Texans will be throwing the ball a considerable amount.

Deshaun Watson is a magician and though his favorite trick has been suspended (Will Fuller), the Texans will still be spending the majority of this game trying to move the ball through the air. I think the Texans will lose here, but Watson should eclipse the 300-yard mark.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Jordan Akins over 33.5 receiving yards -134

Akins went five for 83 two weeks ago but was missing last week in a game the tight ends weren’t necessary. With Will Fuller gone, I expect much more play action. The Colts are solid on defense, so the Texans’ play-action rate should increase. When that happens, tight ends get higher snap and route rates.

Alvin Kamara under 58.5 rushing yards -118

Kamara hasn’t rushed for more than 54 yards in any of his last four games. In addition to Kamara’s struggles, fellow backfield mate Latavius Murray has been taking a much higher percent of snaps and rushing attempts.

The Falcons have a great rush defense and one that will be focused heavily on slowing the new, run-heavy Saints. I expect more from Kamara through the air this week, but the ground game should continue to be dominated by Hill and Murray.

Jonathan Taylor over 52.5 rushing yards -124

Alright, I’m calling for the Jonathan Taylor breakout game now. I realize this is a popular choice seemingly every week from analysts everywhere, but the matchup is great, the perceived game script is great, and Taylor was heavily involved in the last game he played in.

Taysom Hill to score a touchdown -143

Hill has two rushing touchdowns in each of his first two starts at quarterback. The Falcons are a good team against traditional rushing attacks, so the likelihood there’s a rushing touchdown from anyone is more believable coming from the quarterback.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Cam Akers to score the first touchdown +1050

Akers finally broke out last week. Though it was only nine carries, Akers turned it into 84 yards and a touchdown. The more fascinating part was that Akers was brought in close to the goal line. If Akers gets more runs this week by the goal line, he could find himself with a decent chance to punch-in the opening touchdown.

Jonathan Taylor to score first touchdown +750

If the Colts get the ball close to the goal line, Taylor should get the opportunity. I like the odds, given the fact it SHOULD be Taylor in close to the goal line.

Howitzer shot of the week

Adam Trautman to score first touchdown +6000

I love tight ends in this situation, so why not Trautman here? Forget that the Saints don’t have a passing touchdown for a second and think about how Trautman’s snap rate continues to increase. Now, just picture the Saints are on third and goal from the five. He could find himself in a prime position to score first.

Good luck this week!