Allen Robinson Week Has Arrived; Place Your Bets

Allen Robinson Week Has Arrived; Place Your Bets

Allen Robinson Week 14

Welcome back to player prop picks, presented by DraftKings. Last week, we went 3-4, breaking a streak of four straight winning weeks. We got what we expected out of Deshaun Watson, Jonathan Taylor, and Noah Fant. We were let down by Drew Lock and Jordan Akins, so I suppose the lesson here is, marginal players tend to yield marginal results. Alvin Kamara broke our hearts thanks to one really long run, and Taysom Hill decided to get his touchdowns through the air.

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Results through Week 13

In Week 14, we’re focusing on receivers, overs, and Colts vs Raiders 

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 50-36

2020 Unit standing (Longshots included): -3.5

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 14.

All odds according to the DraftKings PA Online Sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

Prop line bets

Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Week 14.

Allen Robinson over 71.5 receiving yards -112

Robinson has one of the most favorable cornerback matchups of the week. He’s also one of the few guys in the league who commands a high target share percentage. Need we say anything more?

James Robinson to score a touchdown -134

Robinson is the engine that drives this offense. Like Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry, Robinson commands a high volume of carries each week. This matchup with Tennessee couldn’t be much more ideal for Robinson to score a touchdown. The Titans are among the worst against opposing backs, so Robinson has decent odds to get six this Sunday.

Nelson Agholor over 40.5 receiving yards -112

Agholor is set to line up opposite of Rock Ya-Sin (Graded at 40.5 by PFF. He Ranks 118/125 corners). Agholor should get plenty of balls thrown his way this week, as the Raiders are the underdogs, have a banged-up back, and will need to exploit the Colts’ slumping secondary to win.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Mike Williams over 45.5 receiving yards -112

Williams is set to line up opposite of Darqueze Dennard in 11 personnel. Dennard is 29, having a down season, is 5’11, and has a PFF grade of 58.7 in coverage. Mike Williams will have a major mismatch in 11 personnel and only a slight mismatch in 12 personnel (AJ Terrell, 66 in coverage). Williams tends to be a very matchup dependent producer, so the soft matchup this week means he shouldn’t have a lot of trouble breaking 46 receiving yards in a pass-heavy script.

Allen Robinson over 5.5 receptions -118

Robinson’s usage in this game should be plentiful. Sure, we’ve been burned by Mitch Trubisky in the past, but the matchup is simply too juicy. Allen Robinson has an ideal matchup, a game perceived to be close, and he’s the undisputed target king of this passing offense. I think he gets at least seven receptions on Sunday.

Jonathan Taylor over 52.5 rushing yards -118

We did this same bet a week ago. The line was the same, the odds were the same, and Taylor came through with a massive run late. I think that big run may have earned him even more carries this week against a poor rush defense. With the Colts set to be in a slightly positive game script, I expect at least 12 carries for the Rookie from Wisconsin.

Justin Herbert over 274.5 passing yards -129

Herbert had his first really bad game of the 2020 campaign. Some are concerned, but I chalk it up to a terrible matchup against solid corners and a Hall of Fame coach. This week, the Chargers will be facing the Falcons, who struggle mightily in the secondary, but excel against the run. Add to the fact the Falcons are favored, and we have all the ingredients for a great game.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Travis Kelce to score the first touchdown +750

The Dolphins have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league. If the Chiefs find their way into the red zone, we aren’t likely to see a rushing touchdown, given their splits this season. That leaves Kelce and Robinson as the two with the softest matchups around the goal line.

Demarcus Robinson to score first touchdown +2000

Robinson is a nice +2000 to score the first touchdown. Yes, I intend to bet both him and Kelce to score the first touchdown, because the prospect of the Chiefs running for a score or throwing the direction of Byron Jones or Xavien Howard. This is a hedge bet, through and through, but a wise one.

Howitzer shot of the week

Alfred Morris to score first touchdown +2200

Gallman had been a consistent touchdown scorer until last week. With two touchdowns in the game, it’s clear the Giants favor Morris around the goal line. For the odds, this could be a real homerun play.

 

 

Good luck this week!