These Are Our 10 Best NFL Week 15 Prop Bets For This Sunday

These Are Our 10 Best NFL Week 15 Prop Bets For This Sunday

Week 15 NFL Prop Bet Picks

Welcome back to our best value prop bets for Week 15 of the NFL season. Last week, we went 4-3 with some really big wins and a few that didn’t quite make it.

It was an impressive 4-3 to say the least. Allen Robinson shredded his projection by over 50 yards, and hit the over in receptions, nearly doubling the line. Nelson Agholor smashed his line by sixty yards. Jonathan Taylor was our last winner, exceeding his yardage total by nearly 100 yards. The busts weren’t

In Week 15, we’re focusing on value all over the place, most on hot players due a down week and others for the inverse.

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Results through Week 14

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 54-39

2020 Unit standing (Longshots included): -5.5

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 15.

All odds according to DraftKings Online Sportsbook PA (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

Prop line bets

Our Coin Flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Week 15.

Jerry Jeudy over 41.5 receiving yards -112

Jeudy isn’t going to get any sort of shadow treatment this week (we believe), so he’s a pretty solid start at home against a Buffalo defense that has looked better, but still has many holes. There will be considerable attention paid to stopping the running game, so I like Jeudy to get some good looks.

Aaron Rodgers under 295.5 passing yards -112

This game should be closer than we expect. I know the Panthers have a bad secondary, especially against deep balls. I also think the Panthers realize this, and will be leaving Jeremy Chinn more in coverage instead of positioning him all over.

I think the Packers will be in a positive game script for most of the game, so there should be much more running from the Packers throughout the game. Oh, it’s also going to be below freezing tonight in Green Bay, so that always helps with passing unders.

James Robinson over 63.5 rushing yards -112

We are 4-0 on James Robinson yardage bets this season. After a “down” week, it’s time to go back to the well again this week. Robinson has been tremendous this season, especially considering his offensive line.

The Ravens have been much more vulnerable on the ground over the second half of the season. I expect Robinson to get to at least 75 yards before he’s scripted out of the game.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 38.5 rushing yards -120

There’s very little room for error in this game for the Chiefs. If you think they’re going to get cute and roll Le’Veon Bell out there, think again. I know the Saints have been great against the run this year, but given the threat of Mahomes and Tyreek Hill playing on turf, there will be a lot more attention focused on the secondary in this game.

Expect a few CEH draws to pickup chunk yardage, while the rest should be read options against a light front. I expect CEH will get at least 50 in this one.

Justin Jefferson over 67.5 receiving yards

This is a bounce-back week for Jefferson. Jefferson will draw Jaylon Johnson in coverage in both 12 and 11 personnel. Johnson is rated by PFF as the 70th best corner in football. His grade is a 56.1. With the Bears historically good against Dalvin Cook, there should be plenty of action for Jefferson this week. I think he’s going over 80.

Jamaal Williams over 27.5 rushing yards -130

We explained this a bit earlier, but weather and game script will be in the favor of the Packers tonight. Big, physical backs do well against opposing defenses in sub-freezing temperatures. For those of you who haven’t played football before, the only thing worse than tackling in freezing weather is kicking a ball in freezing weather.

Kyler Murray under 259.5 passing yards -129

I expect a run-heavy approach in this game by both teams. That means a fast clock and less opportunity to throw the ball around. Murray and the Cardinals also found a lot more success last week when they focused more on moving the chains instead of taking deep shots.

The Eagles’ secondary is no nearly as bad as their run defense, and their offense will be more run-focused with Jalen Hurts behind center. With all the running projected in this game, don’t expect big passing yardage from Kyler this week.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Raheem Mostert to score the first touchdown +700

We are going to take both San Francisco running backs to score the first touchdown in this one. In a positive game script, I like the 49ers (a predominantly run-focused team) to find the end zone on the ground. With Coleman and McKinnon exiled over the past few weeks, Mostert and Wilson are the best options here.

Jeff Wilson Jr to score first touchdown +900

A $10 bet on both is going to have you risking $20 to win either $70 or $90. Given the soft matchup and positive game script, I love the odds.

Howitzer shot of the week

Laquan Treadwell to score a touchdown +1050

Treadwell scored a touchdown last week. He’s seeing some action in the Red Zone, as he should, given the skill set. For a guy coming off a week with a touchdown, why not go for it again this week at odds over 10:1?

 

 

Good luck this week!