There’s Value In The Known, Even With An Uneven Slate

There’s Value In The Known, Even With An Uneven Slate

Week 17 NFL Prop Bets

Welcome back to our weekly look at the best NFL player prop picks, presented by the DraftKings Online Sportsbook. Last week, we went 5-1 on the week. Our only loss was Tua. Since Devante Parker was scratched before the article went live, he was removed from the slate.

Darren Waller and Mark Andrews had big games, as Andrews got us the double (over on receptions and yardage). Jonathan Taylor again came through for us, and DK Metcalf under 70.5 was our ballsy, final nail in the coffin of a solid week.

In Week 17, we’re focusing on some sure things slated for big games.

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Results through Week 16

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 62-44 (58.49%)

2020 Unit standing Prop lines only: +18 (Longshots included: -8.5)

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Week 17.

All odds according to DraftKings Online Sportsbook PA (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

Prop line bets

Our Coin Flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Week 17.

Mitch Trubisky over 14.5 rushing yards -112

Trubisky has been serviceable on the ground since re-assuming the starting quarterback job. He has the chops and the athleticism to make some big plays with his feet and has proven that already. In two of the last three games, Trubisky went for at least 23 on the ground in two of the last three games. The only exception was last week against the Jags.

In the Jags game, Trubisky had no reason to run. The lack of pressure usually results in the unders on these types of bets. With Jhaire Alexander on the outside, and a ferocious pass rush. With extreme cold on the forecast, expect Trubisky to take to the ground a lot more in this game.

Dare Ogunbowale over 21.5 receiving yards -112

Dare had three receptions last week for only seven yards, but they came against a solid Bears defense. The Colts have a lot more holes in their defense and haven’t been very good defensively over the last month. With no James Robinson again for Week 17, there will be plenty of opportunities here for Dare.

Ty Hilton over 56.5 receiving yards -112 

Hilton has five straight games over 60 yards receiving. Jacksonville is also a baby soft matchup for the Colts receivers. Ideally, the Colts would prefer to just run the ball the entire game, but the reality is, the Colts aren’t going to be able to ignore the soft matchups outside, and they also won’t be able to run a one-dimensional offense in this game.

Last week, Allen Robinson went for 103 yards on ten receptions last week. I think the only way Hilton doesn’t get there is if the Colts are just running all over the Jags.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

AJ Brown over 61.5 receiving yards -141

Brown has such a heavy target share and a matchup with a 56 point total. Expect some fireworks from Brown here. The juice is heavy for a reason.

Corey Davis over 56.5 receiving yards -112

Davis got a nice goose egg last week in horrible weather in Green Bay. This week is a soft matchup in a must-win game, with a 56 point total. I expect Davis to finish up a strong 2020 campaign in a big way.

Mark Andrews over 51.5 receiving yards -112

Andrews has cleared his yardage line in five straight games. We’ve profited off that number two or three times now. With another low line this week, Andrews is again set up nicely to surpass his expected yards.

In their first meeting, a 27-3 Ravens win, Andrews had 56 receiving yards on six receptions. He also had nine targets in the game, trailing only Hollywood Brown (10).

George Kittle over 54.5 receiving yards -125

George Kittle is back. He could’ve easily sat the rest of the season out, but this guy is a competitor. This week, he’s got a relatively low line (for him) and a good matchup. I love the outlook this week for the 49ers’ top receiving target.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Lamar Jackson to score first touchdown +700

The Ravens are expected to score a lot. Then Bengals always struggle to stop Lamar on the ground. Jackson has scored the first touchdown in three games this season. There’s a lot to like here for +700 odds.

Mike Gesicki to score a touchdown +225

Gesicki is healthier now and the Dolphins need a win to get in. Gesicki is the top target in the Red Zone, and even if Tua has been deemed “too safe” in the passing game this season, he’s a little more trusting of his athletic tight end.

Howitzer shot of the week

Hayden Hurst to score first touchdown +1800

The spread isn’t ridiculous, and the Falcons have been a great first half team the entire season. Hurst has been more involved recently than he’s been most of the season, so a Red Zone target or two early could pay off big.

Good luck this week!