It’s Playoff Time; Go With The Most Reliable Players

It’s Playoff Time; Go With The Most Reliable Players

NFL Wild Card Week 2021

Welcome back to player prop picks, presented by DraftKings. Last week, we went 4-3 on the week. It took two late, garbage efforts, but Dare and Mitch came through in the end to completely flip our week from being 2-5 to 4-3. TY Hilton was barely utilized, as we feared that could be the case.

Corey Davis missed the low yardage mark, despite being targeted 11 times. Mark Andrews also fell victim to a lack of involvement, as the game snowballed fairly quickly. George Kittle rounded-out the slate by hitting the mark in the Seahawks game. As we’ve demonstrated all season, our thought process was generally correct, but we definitely got lucky with some garbage time covers at the very end of two games.

For the Wildcard Weekend, We’re focusing on the trusted players on each team, as teams typically rely more on those guys in the playoffs.

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Results through Week 17

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 66-47 (58.4%)

2020 Unit standing Prop lines only: +19 (Longshots included: -10.5)

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Wildcard Weekend.

All odds according to the DraftKings Online Sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

Prop line bets

Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Wildcard Weekend.

Marquise Brown over 46.5 receiving yards -112

Hollywood Brown has made quite the splash on the back end of the season. Though the passing volume isn’t high with the Ravens, Brown has hit the over in three of his last six games. However, consider the line is well over 50 and the Titans have been getting carved up by opposing receivers all season. I expect this will be a boom or bust line, but the game script should be favorable for Brown.

Derrick Henry under 120.5 rushing yards -112

This is a combination of an ongoing drama and simple probabilities. First off, 120 yards is asking a lot, even from a 2,000-yard rusher like Henry. In their first meeting, Henry rushed for 133 yards on 28 carries in their meeting earlier this season, with a long of 29 yards. You can be sure the Ravens don’t want Henry to be the reason their season comes to an end for a second year in a row. Don’t forget the Henry stiff arm on Earl Thomas last season. The Ravens sure haven’t forgotten.

Philip Rivers under 265.5 passing yards -112

The winning gameplan here for the Colts is running the ball. If the Colts can’t establish a good rushing attack, this game will be hopeless for the Colts. In order for that to happen, the Colts just need Jonathan Taylor to go wild, like he’s been doing the final six games of the season. There is a chance the Colts get scripted away from running the ball in the second half, but we know they’ll be running heavily in the first half. In extreme cold, there’s a long track record of older quarterbacks struggling. The weather in Buffalo today will be around 34 degrees throughout the game. Pair the cold weather with an old quarterback and a ball-hawking secondary and the odds aren’t good for Rivers hitting this number.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Jonathan Taylor over 73.5 rushing yards -134

Taylor has been on fire down the stretch, rushing for 746 yards over his last six games. This line seems especially low, given the recent history. However, the reason for it is simple. The books expect the Colts will be scripted out of running the ball by the second half. Regardless of whether it’s true or not, Taylor had breakaway speed and he’ll get a heavy workload for at least a half. After that, he’ll likely be used sparingly. If you think the Colts will hang closely with the Bills, this is a good bet for you.

JuJu Smith-Schuster over 5.5 receptions -127

Juju has had at least six receptions in nine of the last eleven games. We know the Steelers can’t run and we know Juju has a ridiculous snap count. No matter the personnel packages, Juju is seemingly always on the field. Considering the issue with drops that has plagued many of the Steelers players this season, Juju remains the sure-handed go-to guy for Big Ben. Expect nine or more targets and at least seven receptions in this one.

Mark Andrews over 3.5 receptions -134

In their previous matchup, Andres went for over 90 yards receiving on five receptions. Though his receptions are never really very high, we are going with the theme of selecting trusted players this week. There is no other target in this offense more trusted than Mark Andrews, and there are few matchups as appealing as this Titans game, with a total points line in the mid-fifties.

JK Dobbins over 61.5 rushing yards -125

As the season has progressed and times became desperate, the Ravens leaned more and more on JK Dobbins. Instead of this weird rotation of Ingram, Edwards, and Dobbins; the Ravens finally turned over the majority of the work to the hyper-talented Dobbins. The last time these two played, Dobbins eclipsed this line on just 15 carries. Now that he’s more trusted in the offense, expect at least 20 carries this week. Dobbins is my favorite play this weekend.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Stefon Diggs to score first touchdown +900

Diggs has emerged as one of the best receivers in football this season. He’s Josh Allen’s favorite target, and he has a very soft matchup this week. Honestly, it doesn’t matter who his matchup will be against, Diggs is going to be a plus matchup against anyone. Hosting their first playoff game since 1996, Buffalo will seek to put the Colts in an early hole. Who else would you rather take for the first score?

Chris Godwin to score first touchdown +900

Godwin appears to be Brady’s favorite current receiver at the moment. With touchdowns over his past three games, Godwin is the hottest receiver of the group, and a healthier option than Mike Evans.

Howitzer shot of the week

Miles Boykin to score first touchdown +2000

Boykin has been receiving a larger target share in this offense lately. In a game hyper-focused on two rushing attacks, Boykin may find himself alone in the end zone with the ball in his hands and ask himself, “how did I get here?”

 

 

Good luck this week!