10 Super Bowl VI Props With Excellent Value

10 Super Bowl VI Props With Excellent Value

Super Bowl LV Prop Picks

Welcome back to to our weekly NFL prop picks, this time for Super Bowl LV!

Last week, we bounced back from a rough Divisional week to go 4-3. We won on the Brady under, Allen under, Adams over, and Rodgers TDs over. We didn’t come through on Rodgers yardage under, Ronald Jones over, and Gronk receptions. Davante Adams was the key bet, as his yardage failed to cover, but his receptions total did. We went back and forth on him and ultimately landed on the receptions, due to weather concerns. Realistically, had the weather no magically cleared up 40 minutes prior to kickoff in the Bucs game.

For the big one, we are targeting quarterback props and running back props. It’s a single game, so we are playing this completely by the matchup. We will be talking up a specific game script we believe has the best odds of happening here.

Results so far

2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 75-59 (55.97%)

2020 Unit standing Prop lines only: +16 (Longshots included: -22.5)

All odds according to the DraftKings online sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).

DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus $1000

Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Title Week.

Prop line bets

Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Title Week.

Tom Brady over 295.5 passing yards -112

Last week, we picked Josh Allen under 305 passing yards and sure enough, he didn’t come close. Part of that was an ill-informed belief about the weather situation, but more of it was faith in the Chiefs’ ability to generate pressure and the defensive scheme against a one-dimensional offense.

For this matchup, I like Brady for the over for two reasons. On reason is the in-game adjustments Brady will make. Brady will find a way to audible into favorable shorter routes, and he’ll take deeper shots against single coverage on the outside. The other reason is perceived game script. In most of their games this season, the Chiefs have gotten out to big leads in games, forcing their opponent to go pass heavy. I think there’s plenty of room for Brady to hit his overs in this game.

Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 passing touchdowns in first quarter +138

In Week 12, the Chiefs scored two first quarter touchdowns through the air. Though it’s likely we see either a two deep look or a double team on Hill, Mahomes is tremendous under pressure and has Kelce to find space in the short and intermediate. I like the odds, given the perceived game script.

Tom Brady over 39.5 pass attempts -112

This coincides with what we’ve already said about Brady. We expect this game should develop well for the Chiefs, thus forcing Brady to take to the air much more. Though I don’t expect it will be quite as extreme as it was in Week 12, I do think the Bucs will be playing from behind.

Even if this game is close throughout, that means the Bucs are moving the ball well against the Chiefs. With how good the Chiefs’ pass rush has been, if the Bucs are to find success, I expect it will be on shorter routes. Thus, the Bucs drives will be long and full of plenty of pass attempts.

Sure Things

The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.

Patrick Mahomes over 325.5 passing yards -112

There’s a good reason to believe Mahomes will hit this number, and it’s not directly related to Brady’s projection. The Chiefs lost a key offensive lineman against the Bills to an Achilles injury. The Bucs have a very strong rush defense. The Chiefs also passed for 462 yards (almost all of it in just three quarters) against the Buccaneers in Week 6.

There are few scenarios where the Chiefs elect to go with a run-heavy or a balanced attack. Anytime you have a key lineman missing, the run game is going to take a hit more than the passing game. It’s also telling there’s no receiving line for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. When this happens, the player typically smashes what the assumed over would be.

I expect the Chiefs will continue to use both Kelce and Hill to pressure the defense early, even at shallow depths. The RAC ability of both gives me optimism on this bet.

Darrel Williams under 36.5 rushing yards -118

We have addressed this before, but the main reason for this bet is based on the banged-up O-Line and the improving health of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. With CEH back, more healthy than he was in the Conference title game, expect him to get a big chunk of the workload. I expect Williams to only get around five or six carries in this one.

Tom Brady over 0.5 rushing yards +150

You know what? This isn’t as crazy as the odds would suggest. Consider how often Tom Brady sneaks the ball on quick snaps on fourth down and short. This isn’t unbelievable.

Now consider what’s at stake here. It’s the big game and the Chiefs have a good blitz. Even if there aren’t any opportunity for short sneaks, Brady may have a few opportunities to step up in the pocket and slide after picking up a few yards.

Darrel Williams under 8.5 carries -112

We covered Darrel Williams earlier (and the return of CEH). I think Williams will get a few carries sporadically in the game. He should be the guy getting the ball near the goal line, but the prospect of the Chiefs running the ball much seems slim. Mahomes’ attempts line is over 40, so I don’t think Williams will get to nine carries.

Longshots

Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.

Scotty Miller to score a touchdown +475

Scotty Miller has played a bigger part in the playoffs than most have imagined. Much of that is due to the injury to Antonio Brown. Even with Brown back, Miller is a speedy, ancillary option, but one who should draw more favorable coverage than the other three top Bucs receivers.

Travis Kelce to score first touchdown +525

Kelce is a touchdown machine. As long as the Chiefs hold true to the perceived game script, I like Mahomes’ favorite red zone target in this bet.

Howitzer shot of the week

Antonio Brown to score last touchdown +1800

The perceived game script dictates the Bucs will be trailing in this game near the end. The question is, will Tom Brady put the Bucs ahead with the final touchdown, or will it be a futile score?

Good luck this week!