Villanova Goes Into Weekend Winning Three In A Row With Final Four Odds Now At +400

Villanova Goes Into Weekend Winning Three In A Row With Final Four Odds Now At +400

Villanova College Basketball Final Four Odds

Over the past week, Villanova had two must-win games. After a brief rough patch of three straight losses, Villanova has gone on to win three in a row.

With Villanova just 1.5 games out of the lead in the conference, they’ll have five games to make up the ground. Due to the volatile play of Myles Powell lately, Villanova has a stronger chance than many realize.

A recap of last week for Villanova

Last Sunday, Villanova was coming off a one-point squeaker over Marquette a week ago. They traveled to Liacoures Center in Philadelphia in front of a packed house. The game was back and forth for the entire first half with Temple pulling ahead by four at the half.

The start of the second half was critical in a hostile environment in a must-win game and Villanova responded by coming out and hitting three consecutive threes to begin the second half. Once Villanova took control in the second half, they never took their foot off the gas, scoring 50 points and holding Temple to just 26 second-half points.

Collin Gillespie had 29 points, going 7-11 from three in the runaway victory. Villanova had a weird game by their own standards, turning the ball over 13 times (-4 differential) but they were +9 in rebounds. It’s an unusual line for Villanova but the rebounding aggressiveness was a very promising sign. Villanova shot 46% from the field, 47% from three, and 83% from the line. The 20-point victory was the largest for Villanova since January 28th against St. John’s.

On Wednesday, Villanova traveled to Wintrust arena in Chicago to take on DePaul, who gave them a really tough time in a Villanova four-point victory on January 14th. The game was 13-12 around the 13 minute mark and then it turned into a boat race.

Villanova began to slowly pull away and DePaul just couldn’t keep up with the hot-shooting Wildcats. Villanova’s starters went 16-22 from three (18-26 as a team). Villanova shot 57% from the field, 69% from three, and 78% from the line. Villanova won the rebounding battle (+7) but lost the turnover battle (-7). It’s a small sample but over the last two games, Villanova has turned over the ball 15 times per game and outrebounded their opponents by eight per game.

The aggressiveness on the boards is nice, and the ball movement seems more apparent, but it’s clear Villanova may need to dial it back on the turnovers if they hope to have any shot against some of the elite rebounding teams out there. If they keep turning it over at this rate, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the offense to have to shoot well to stay in games. Justin Moore and Collin Gillespie were terrific in the game, shooting a combined 9-13 from deep and 34 total points.

2019-2020 schedule and results so far

NOV 5 (W) – Army 97-54

NOV 13 (L) – Ohio State 76-51

NOV 16 (W) – Ohio 78-54

NOV 21 (W) – MTSU 98-69

NOV 22 (W) – Mississippi St 83-76

NOV 24 (L) – Baylor 87-78

DEC 1 (W) – La Salle 83-72

DEC 4 (W) – Penn 80-69

DEC 7 (W) – Saint Joseph’s 78-66

DEC 14 (W) – Deleware 78-70

DEC 21 (W) – Kansas 56-55

DEC 30 (W) – Xavier 68-62

JAN 4 (L) – Marquette 71-60

JAN 7 (W) – Creighton 64-59

JAN 11 (W) – Georgetown 80-66

JAN 14 (W) – DePaul 79-75

JAN 18 (W) – UConn 61-55

JAN 21 (W) – Butler 76-61

JAN 25 (W) – Providence 64-60

JAN 28 (W) – St. John’s 79-59

FEB 1 (L) – Creighton 76-61

FEB 5 (L) – Butler 79-76

FEB 8 (L) – Seton Hall 70-64

FEB 12 (W) – Marquette 72-71

FEB 16 (W) – Temple 76-56

FEB 19 (W) – DePaul 91-71

Preview for this week

On Saturday, Villanova will travel to Cincinnati to face Xavier (17-9). There’s no current line set but I expect Villanova will be slight favorites. Xavier is a physical team, as they have been every year, it seems. The Musketeers are led offensively by Naji Marshall (16.1 PPG). Though Xavier is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country (30.7% puts them at #293), they are tenacious on the boards (40 RPG) and led by Tyrique Jones (11.3 RPG).

Xavier’s defense averages 3.7 blocks per game and 5.7 steals, so Villanova will absolutely need to be more careful with the ball than they have been over their last few games. The big indicator for how solid their defense actually plays is their opponent’s field goal percentage. Xavier limits opponents to just 39.9%, which ranks 31st in the country.

Next Wednesday, Villanova will host St. John’s in Philadelphia. St. John’s is one of the worst shooting teams in the country (41% puts them at #296), and their rank in three-point percentage isn’t much better (30.9% puts them at #285). St. John’s overwhelming strength is their ability to force turnovers.

St. John’s is the top team in the country in steals (10.3 per game), as they’re the only team in double digits in the country as well. Just like with Xavier, St. John’s isn’t likely to shoot the lights out. They’re going to pressure your offense and force turnovers. Defensively, they’re ranked 62nd in opponent’s field goal percentage.

 Villanova is +400 to make the Final Four 

A little over a week ago, Villanova was +400 in odds via PlaySugarHouse. Today, they’re still +400, even after the three-game winning streak. Last week, we ran out a scenario where we put the round by round odds below and discussed why it actually was a decent bet. The odds are still the same:

R-64: -240

R-32: +125

R-16: +155

R-8: +255

Last week, I wrote about how these odds were actually good. Following the three game win streak, the odds are still solid at +400 because at the highest variance of a possible bracket scenario, Villanova would still be somewhere between +300 and +600.

I think +400 hits it right on the nose because this year’s tournament should have a higher degree of variance with the outcomes than we’ve seen in quite some time. It wouldn’t be that shocking if a $100 bet turned into $400 if you just took the Villanova moneyline in each game. I’d be much more surprised if it stayed close to chalk and turned out to be +600. I like the value from this futures bet even more this week than last.

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